People`s numbers and voices

People`s numbers and voices are more superior than any weapon the Ugandan despot could possibly marshal. The modern dictator, is the absolute ruler who has fabricated an elaborate cult of the personality to prove that he is more intelligent, more potent and generally superior to any other human being.

One man who thinks that Uganda was created for him specifically is that modern despot whom the policy of this website forbids me from directly mentioning his names, he creates the impression that he holds in the palm of his hand the existence of every person and every organization in Uganda. The paramount dictator has freely been parceling out public land, ancestral land, oil resources and other mineral wealth of the country to his cronies and pseudo investors, Jobs and scholarships to his relatives and village mates etc. The despot now has the arrogant impression; he considers that he is doing the rest of Ugandans a great favor.

No wander he has surrounded himself with mediocrities and lackeys - men and women with little competence and integrity who maintain their positions through cunning, opportunism and boot-licking the dictator. Shamelessly these stooges of the dictator have mimicked the tyrant’s behaviors of intolerance to other political views, is this the best they can reward their country really?

Let me touch on the other sleeping group the middle class: The Ugandan middle class has lost its sense of professional pride. There is little or no job satisfaction to be gained at any level in government service and even outside of the government. Many have been beaten down into silence; Ironically they are the individual groups who travel and who know the world most. They therefore know that internationally the despot’s regime has been totally discredited and that the ordinary Ugandans have to bear the brunt and shame heaped on them by the dictator.

Part of my humble appeal to many of these sleeping giants in the middle class, is they should begin to offer themselves into political movement and assist to mobilize, commit resources and be prepared to take serious risks as part of the movement.

Therefore, I call upon you to depart from your respective comfort zones and the join the numbers of the already mobilized and offer leadership, Uganda needs us all.

Let’s first take a look at the numbers:

1.            Population of Uganda – 38.8 Million [Source: United Nations Population Fund Report 2014]

2.            Youth (i.e. population between 15-30 years) as a Percentage of Total Population: 77% or 29.8Million. [Source: United Youth Statistics, UNICEF]

3.            Total Number of Eligible Voters Recorded in the National Voters Register to be used in the 2016 General Elections: 15,277,196 [Source: East African Business Week, 15/02/2015]

4.            Total Number of Polling Stations: 28,010 polling stations distributed across the country. [ Source: East African Business Week, ibid]

5.            Number of Districts in Uganda: 111 Districts and One City-Kampala [Source: Wikipedia]

6.            Number of Villages in Uganda: 56,000

7.            Total Size of Uganda Police Force: Between 45,000 – 47,000 [Source: Daily Monitor 16/04/2015]

8.            Police to Population Ratio: 1 policeman for every 862 Ugandans.

9.            Total Size of Crime Preventers: About 50,000. Recruitment target 1.7 Million before 2016 elections and 10 million by the end of 2018 [Source: The Observer, 23/10/2015, URN 06/11/2015]

10.          Total Size of SFC: 8,000 [Source: The Independent, 15/02/2013].

11.          SFC to Population Ratio: 1 SFC for every 4860 Ugandans.

12.          Total Size of UPDF: 40,000 – 45,000 [Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Wikipedia, the Independent Newspaper ibid]

13.          Total Size of Other Security Out Fits e.g. CMI, ISO, JATT etc. [unknown but not more than 10,000]

Assuming 60,000 security forces are committed to this election we can estimate an average of about 2 security officials per polling station or 1 per village. Assuming on average, each polling station caters for 550 voters on average or to look at it differently 1064 youth or 1,350 citizens, the latter two who though they can’t vote are enthusiastic observers. 

To me these numbers indicate that it is difficult to rely on security to rig one’s way into power again. I don’t see 2 security Ugandan officers committing a massacre against 550 voters or 1064 youth. I don’t think crime preventers are a credible threat because the bulk are opportunistic and opposition leaning and for those who are not, they are inadequately skilled and equipped to handle security matters. In addition, the government has no money to pay them and recently MP’s rejected a request of 37bn to pay just 50,000 of them UGX 20,000 each (See http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/41735-mps-block-shs-37bn-request-for-crime-preventers).  Where can government get UGX 255BN per month or 3 Trillion per year to pay the 1.7M a minimum wage of 150,000 per month or 1.8M per year? Government doesn’t have that money lying idle neither does NRM or Museveni nor can Uganda’s total wage bill of 2.3 trillion comfortably accommodate it when government can’t ensure timely payment of wages to existing spies. Secondly, most security officers are interested in doing good and are not interested in destroying their lives and reputations for the sake of one man’s personal or family rule. This is the case for all even those working in Special Forces Command. For example, Christopher Aine worked in SFC, but chose to make a difference for his country. Aine shows the good in the security services.

Museveni is a student of psychology, and his greatest skill has been to play the poker face or bluff power game to well. i.e. when someone is bluffing, they are pretending that the cards they are holding are better than they really are (in the hopes of getting their opponent to give up). Ugandans have to call his bluff. They can do so firstly by looking at the numbers and believing that change is possible. Secondly they should come out boldly and patriotically in big numbers to vote and even those who are not eligible, should do all they can to facilitate peaceful and effective voting e.g. vigilantly stationing themselves near the polling stations to provide a sense of security. Thirdly, they should do all they can within their sphere of influence to enable friends, relatives, peers, employees, house-helps, children etc. go out and vote.

A Former USA President J. F. Kennedy famously stated: Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country. In the Ugandan context, this is a call of civic duty to all of us to do well and influence the election outcome, to not only vote but to ensure others vote and to try to safeguard you and your neighbors vote. Everyone on social media is fortunate and educated and has a sphere of influence in life, however small, therefore we should use it, being mindful that small effort builds up a momentum.  All this is to ensure that come February 18th 2016, you, your family and your children will be proud to be identified as Ugandans, and most importantly you will know that you have built your country.